I’ve not written previously about the similarities I see between belief in AI as inevitable and religious faith in God. I have mentioned the idea frequently to friends and colleagues, and several posts here imply the idea. I’ve been meaning to get around to it, but Alberto Romero has beaten me to it with What Apple Knows About AI That Silicon Valley Won't Admit (via Daring Fireball).
AI is like religion. Either you believe it changes everything, or you don’t believe at all. There is no moderate position; nobody believes in AGI “more or less,” just like nobody is “casually religious.” If God exists, the only coherent response is to reorganize your entire life around that fact, as priests do. If you pray sometimes, then you are just an atheist who’s also fearful. When tech companies spend hundreds of billions on capital expenditures to add sparkly AI features to Office, Gmail, and Instagram, I only see fearful atheists—guys who don’t believe in AI but pretend just in case.
It’s this belief in a soon coming, all-powerful digital god that I see underpinning every decision companies and some individuals are making in terms of the actions they’re taking related to AI. I would have said I see more true believers than casual, fearful parishioners, but Romero sees the opposite. He makes a compelling argument.
What they’re doing has a more charitable name in theology: Pascal’s Wager. They can’t prove AI will be transformative. But if it is and they don’t invest, they’re dead. Or worse: the laughing stock. However, if it isn’t transformative and they invest, they only lose some cash they will recoup anyway by doubling down on ads. So they tithe. They go to church on Sunday. Then fast for Ramadan, keep Shabbat, leave offerings at the shrine. They even perform hecatombs, and, every few months, bathe in the Ganges.
I really hadn’t considered this, but I think I might now agree. Please read all of Romero’s post. It’s a well reasoned argument. I’m not sure I agree on all points. I still think Google and its leadership are true believers. I’m also not sure I agree Apple is completely pure in its convictions. But as a generally accurate argument, I think I’m now convinced. I definitely see the fear Romero describes in my friends and colleagues. I remain convinced that one day the tech industry will come to its collective senses and start behaving rationally again. Until then, I remain committed to reading and writing here in the hope that good arguments eventually win out.